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    气候变暖意味着苍蝇数量更多 食源性疾病发病率更高

    kira86 于2019-03-27发布 l 已有人浏览
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    流行病学家表示,气候变暖时,苍蝇数量会变多,活跃时间也更长,从而常见的靠苍蝇传播的疾病发病率也会更高。
      小E英语欢迎您,请点击播放按钮开?#30142;?#25918;……

    苍蝇.jpg
    Warming Climate Implies More Flies - and Disease

    气候变暖意味着更多苍蝇、更高发病率

    A recent analysis predicts that 40 percent of the world's insect species could go extinct within the next few decades. The highest death tolls could be among butterflies, moths, bees and dung beetles.

    最近一项分析预测,世界上40%的昆虫物种可能在未来几十年内灭绝。死亡率最高的物种可能是蝴蝶、飞蛾、蜜蜂和蜣螂(金龟子)。

    Conspicuously absent from that list are houseflies. Because they may actually do better in a hotter world. "Under a warming scenario you'd have a larger fly population which is able to hang around for a longer period of time." Amy Greer, an epidemiologist and mathematical modeler at the University of Guelph in Ontario.

    很明显,家蝇不在这个名单上。因为家蝇实际上在更热的环境下生命力更强。“在全球变暖时,苍蝇的数量会更多,在空?#22411;?#30041;(活跃)的时间也更长。”安大略省圭尔夫大学(University of Guelph)的流行病学家和数学建模师艾米·格里尔(Amy Greer)表示?#20581;?/p>

    Plus, she says, flies are also more active when it's warm. Meaning more chances to land on your picnic dips.

    此外,她还表示,苍蝇在温暖的环境下也更活跃,这就意味着它们有更多机会停在你的?#23433;?#34360;料上。

    Greer's student Melanie Cousins, now a doctoral candidate at the University of Waterloo, explains the effect on us: "With this increase in fly population and fly activity, this may lead to more transmission of Campylobacter."

    格里尔的学生梅勒妮·卡曾斯如今是滑铁卢大学的博士生,她解释了这种现象对我们的影响:“随着苍蝇数量和苍蝇活动量的增加,弯曲菌属的传播量也可能会随之增加。”

    The common foodborne illness, like the flies, fluctuates with the seasons. "So with warmer temperatures Campylobacter will be able to replicate more efficiently."

    (弯曲杆菌是)常见的食源性疾病,靠苍蝇转播,会随着季节的变化而变化。“因此,随着温度的升高,弯曲杆菌也将能得到更?#34892;?#30340;传播。”

    Cousins modeled both the insect and bacterial trends under different global warming scenarios. And found that the uptick in fly population numbers did not matter much. But if warming truly does increase fly activity, then Campylobacter cases in the Ontario, Canada, area could more than double with a moderate 4 degrees Fahrenheit rise by 2080. The results are in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

    卡曾斯模拟了昆虫和细菌在全球变暖(温度)不同情景下的趋势,然后发现,苍蝇数量的增加影响并不大。但是,如果气候变暖?#32933;?#22686;加了苍蝇的活跃度,到2080年气?#24459;?#21319;4华氏度时,?#24189;?#22823;安大略省的弯曲杆菌病例可能会增加一倍以上。研究结果发表在《皇家学会开放科学》杂志上

    These conclusions come with many caveats. The data is generated by a mathematical model, saying this is at least in theory possible. But it does not take into account a possible increase in fly predators, for example. And the researchers haven't actually tested flies landing on food to see if they're dropping off bacteria. And while it has been shown in past studies that flies can carry Campylobacter, it's unclear whether warming temperatures might affect their ability to do so.

    但这项结论有很多需要注意的地?#20581;?#36825;些数据是由一个数学模型产生的,表示这至少在理论上是有可能的,但并没有考虑到苍蝇捕食者的数量也可能增加等因素。研究人员也没有测试苍蝇落在食物上时是否会掉下细菌。虽?#36824;?#21435;的研究表明,苍蝇可?#23381;?#24102;弯曲杆菌,但尚不清楚气?#24459;?#39640;是否会影响它们携带弯曲杆菌的能力。

    Still, the researchers themselves are taking precautions. "I am a little more paranoid about it personally." "I bought one of those fly screens for picnics to go over the bowls."

    不过,研究人员?#32422;閡苍?#37319;取预?#26469;?#26045;。“就我个人而言,我有点多疑。我买了一个这样的防蝇板,?#23433;?#26102;用它来盖碗。”

    小e英语Jewel翻译!

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